start

xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0037
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0037
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0036
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0036
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0005
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0028
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0005
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0028
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0005
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0029
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0005
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0005
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0397

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0095

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0107

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0302

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0040

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0322

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

    0.0089

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0064

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0344

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0192

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0062

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0120

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2092

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2057

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2001

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.1984

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0033

change in G

ans =

   -0.0280

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0034

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0091

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0107

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0039    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0078    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0116    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0154    0.0125         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0240    0.0194         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0325    0.0256         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0409    0.0310         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0491    0.0357         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0484    0.0315         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0476    0.0274         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0469    0.0235         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0462    0.0196         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0455    0.0159         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0448    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0441    0.0087         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0434    0.0053         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0428    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0421   -0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0415   -0.0045         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0408   -0.0076         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0402   -0.0105         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0396   -0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0390   -0.0162         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0384   -0.0190         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0378   -0.0216         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0372   -0.0242         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0367   -0.0267         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0361   -0.0291         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0356   -0.0314         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0350   -0.0337         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0345   -0.0359         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0339   -0.0380         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0334   -0.0401         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0329   -0.0420         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0324   -0.0440         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0319   -0.0458         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0314   -0.0476         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0309   -0.0494         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0305   -0.0511         0


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 3.0000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.1691 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0058

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0143

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0110

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

   -0.0116

kkk

kkk =

     1

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0026

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.2068

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0210


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0037
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0037
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0036
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0036
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0030
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0031
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0032
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0033
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0034
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000


xw =

    0.0048
    0.2950
    0.0045


xb =

    0.0006
   -0.0754
    0.9868


xR =

    0.0035
   -0.5245
   -0.0080


xk =

    0.0001
    0.9847
    0.0000

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0317

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

    0.0149

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0043

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0168

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

    0.0040

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0303

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

    0.0202

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0020

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0300

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0292

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0059

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0107

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2095

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2092

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2092

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2092

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0020

change in G

ans =

   -0.0053

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

  -2.9055e-04

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -3.0792e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -3.1457e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0049
    0.2950
    0.0045

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0039    0.0036         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0078    0.0069         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0040    0.0116    0.0099         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0154    0.0125         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0240    0.0194         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0325    0.0256         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0090    0.0409    0.0310         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0491    0.0357         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0484    0.0315         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0476    0.0274         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0469    0.0235         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0462    0.0196         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0455    0.0159         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0448    0.0122         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0441    0.0087         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0434    0.0053         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0428    0.0019         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0421   -0.0013         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0415   -0.0045         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0408   -0.0076         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0402   -0.0105         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0396   -0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0390   -0.0162         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0384   -0.0190         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0378   -0.0216         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0372   -0.0242         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0367   -0.0267         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0361   -0.0291         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0356   -0.0314         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0350   -0.0337         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0345   -0.0359         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0339   -0.0380         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0334   -0.0401         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0329   -0.0420         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0324   -0.0440         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0319   -0.0458         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0314   -0.0476         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0309   -0.0494         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0305   -0.0511         0

+++++++++++++++++++multiplier++++++++++++++++

multiplier =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    1.4208    1.5471    1.5987    1.6232    1.6426

  Columns 14 through 26

    1.6592    1.6762    1.6988    1.7249    1.7529    1.7814    1.8069    1.8266    1.8386    1.8418    1.8362    1.8249    1.8125

  Columns 27 through 39

    1.8036    1.8009    1.8043    1.8120    1.8208    1.8272    1.8278    1.8207    1.8069    1.7900    1.7754    1.7672    1.7668

  Column 40

    1.7724


multiplier1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    3.5620    3.5174    3.4332    3.3256    3.2112

  Columns 14 through 26

    3.0959    2.9875    2.8975    2.8295    2.7839    2.7590    2.7494    2.7485    2.7504    2.7495    2.7410    2.7236    2.6999

  Columns 27 through 39

    2.6749    2.6541    2.6415    2.6386    2.6441    2.6547    2.6656    2.6717    2.6701    2.6611    2.6486    2.6389    2.6373

  Column 40

    2.6471


multiplier_RE =

  Columns 1 through 21

     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 22 through 40

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN


multiplier_RE1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    6.7274    6.5525    6.3889    6.2355    6.0914

  Columns 14 through 26

    5.9557    5.8279    5.7071    5.5929    5.4847    5.3821    5.2847    5.1920    5.1037    5.0196    4.9393    4.8626    4.7893

  Columns 27 through 39

    4.7192    4.6519    4.5875    4.5256    4.4662    4.4091    4.3542    4.3014    4.2505    4.2014    4.1541    4.1085    4.0644

  Column 40

    4.0218


years =

        2008        2009        2010        2011        2012        2013        2014        2015        2016        2017


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [-3.2669 -10.2588 -11.5186 -12.3462 -13.9672 -14.6073]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


y_with =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.3690   -0.9817   -1.6795   -2.4013   -3.5849   -5.0647   -6.6775   -8.4210   -9.4356   -9.8730  -10.1008  -10.3267  -10.6092

  Columns 14 through 26

  -10.9641  -11.3760  -11.7469  -11.9640  -11.9412  -11.6286  -11.0711  -10.3988   -9.7582   -9.2809   -9.0662   -9.1236   -9.3556

  Columns 27 through 39

   -9.5981   -9.6713   -9.4410   -8.8778   -8.0711   -7.1997   -6.4811   -6.0928   -6.0933   -6.3902   -6.7676   -6.9601   -6.7559

  Column 40

   -6.0917


ylhand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3318e+05 -7.5000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ylhand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand', ylhand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand'), end">all properties</a>

average output loss over three years

ans =

   -2.3275

cumulative output loss over six years

ans =

  -12.8951


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h5 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h5', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5', h5, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>

g_with1

g_with1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.0032   -0.0083   -0.0140   -0.0200   -0.0302   -0.0426   -0.0846   -0.1854   -0.2996   -0.3623   -0.4604   -0.5952   -0.7514

  Columns 14 through 26

   -0.9335   -1.1234   -1.2618   -1.3252   -1.2932   -1.1627   -0.9823   -0.8081   -0.6811   -0.6360   -0.6917   -0.8180   -0.9575

  Columns 27 through 39

   -1.0478   -1.0353   -0.8997   -0.6668   -0.3956   -0.1609   -0.0331   -0.0452   -0.1740   -0.3487   -0.4749   -0.4678   -0.2904

  Column 40

    0.0262


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734047 734412 734777 735143 735508 735873 736238 736604]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp', hp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp'), end">all properties</a>


hpp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp', hpp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp'), end">all properties</a>


y2hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3302e+05 5.1239 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y2hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand', y2hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand'), end">all properties</a>


hpp1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1', hpp1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1'), end">all properties</a>


y3hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3306e+05 -3.0000 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y3hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand', y3hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 2.2492 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.0796 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0058

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0143

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0110

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

   -0.0116

kkk

kkk =

     2

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0026

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.2068

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

    0.0091

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RE solution
ordering: rk wage output mp hours cons invst caput cap gama
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
